Melbourne Cup Betting tips
Set a limit.
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Look to withdraw cash at an ATM & go into a TAB to place bets.
Gamble responsibly.
Chances are you're about to lose.
Melbourne Cup
The cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
With form lines coming from all over the world, with many international horses having their first start in Australia and others tackling the 3,200m for the first time.
In saying that, here is our analysis:
#1 Vauban
2023 Melbourne Cup Favourite.
Finished 14th and some way off the winner last year.
Vauban will be leading the field up for a long way, has had success back in Europe over the past 12 months,
gets the distance, and has leading international jockey William Buick.
#2 Buckaroo
Has been in red hot form of late.
2nd in the Caulfield Cup & Turnbull Stakes.
Will be charging over the top of them in the last 200m.
Magic Man Joao Moreira gets the ride for champion trainer Chris Waller.
Poor barrier means Joao may need a bit luck and a sprinkle of his magic.
#3 Circle of Fire
Struggled so far this prep.
However, has won over this distance earlier in the year, against some of these.
Jockey Mark Zahra has won the 2022 & 2023 Melbourne Cups.
#4 Wrap Speed
Solid Japanese form and will run out the distance.
Was very ordinary in the Caulfield Cup a few weeks ago.
Not to be overlooked.
#5 Kovalica
Has had promising lead up runs.
Forget last start at Moonee Valley.
Will get back and will be powering home late, fighting out the finish.
#6 Sharp N Smart
Is back in form placing 2 out of the 4 runs back.
Wasn’t far off Okita Soushi last start.
Looking at others.
#7 Just Fine
Gai Waterhouse starter, that has shown early speed.
Has mixed form over the past few weeks, winning the Bart Cummings, then coming out leading the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, before fading to finish last.
#8 Land Legend
Won the Metropolitan, and finished third in the Caulfield Cup.
Likely to race on speed. Will be in it for a long way.
Champion trainer Chris Waller gets Hong Kong champion jockey, Zac Purton
#9 Absurde
European Raider.
Will run out the distance.
The pick of the European Imports,
if he doesn’t get too worked up before the race.
#10 Athabascan
Will get the distance.
Had a few warm up races, before producing a peach run to take out the St Leger.
Peaking at the right time, and will get a nice run behind a genuine tempo from an inside gate.
Gets the services of boom young jock, Zac Lloyd.
#11 Knight’s Choice
One for the Newcastle Knights fans.
Should produce about as much as the knights, and will happy to finish in the top 8.
Ran ok last start in the Bendigo Cup but looking at others.
#12 Okita Soushi
Ran well in the Herbert Power before winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup.
Only managed to run 11th in the Melbourne Cup last year.
In better form this year and should race on speed with the great Jamie Kah aboard.
#13 Onesmoothoperator
European Raider, that will run out the distance.
Dominant winning the Geelong Cup two weeks ago.
Very impressive turn off foot.
Evergreen jockey Craig Williams is in a purple patch of form.
One of the main chances.
#14 Zardozi
James Cummings the grandson of King of the Cups Bart Cummings has been following the family recipe to the tee.
Short back up after racing on Saturday and has had six runs this preparation getting minimum of 10,000m in the legs.
Has been racing consistently of late and gets Hong Kong based jock Atzeni.
#15 Sea King
Another European raider, that has come in and won the Bendigo Cup last week.
Was a class above last week, however there is a bit more depth to this field.
International Female jockey star Hollie Doyle flies in to take the ride for Harry Eustace.
Definitely respecting.
#16 Valiant King
Has struggled in all three runs so far this campaign.
Wide barrier, looking to others.
#17 Fancy Man
6th in the Caulfield Cup.
3rd in the Herbert Power.
Wide barrier, not for me.
#18 Interpretation
In last years Melbourne Cup - powered home from 19th at the 400m to finish 6th.
2nd in the Geelong Cup, drops 3kgs from that run.
Rates strongly.
#19 Mazoice
Last win was the VRC Derby in 2022.
7th in the Moonee Valley Cup when up on the pace and faded.
Looking at others
#20 Mostly Cloudy
Came from England with some solid form.
Has always threatened, with a 2nd in the Brisbane Cup, 2nd in the Andrew Ramsden, but the 12th in the Bart Cummings last month was poor.
Hard to have on the last run, but will run out the distance.
#21 Positivity
Won the Adelaide Classic, the Naturalism Stakes, and plugged away to finish 7th in the Bart Cummings last month.
Great story about female jockey Winona Costin and the sacrifices she has made to achieve her dream of getting a ride in the cup.
But it may stay a dream of winning a cup.
#22 Saint George
Your 2024 Melbourne Cup Winner.
The beautiful grey British stayer was imported by Ciaron Maher.
He hasn’t hit his straps like many of the other imports, but has shown enough, with a 5th in the Moonee Valley Cup.
Will be the grey flash coming down the outside of the track.
UK form indicates that he will run out the distance and the Maher team will have him cherry ripe.
#23 The Map
2nd in the Adelaide Cup, Won the Andrew Ramsden.
Very consistent mare, who will run all day.
Won at Flemington on Cup day last year, so she will be able to handle the big occasion.
Bad gate, top female jock in Rachel King.
Not without hope.
#24 Trust In You
Kiwi gelding who has been plodding along in some distance races of late.
6th in the Auckland Cup, 4th The Metropolitan.
This is much tougher, but does drop 7.5kgs.
Lady Luck
Those looking for the female jockeys and trainers in the race, we have a strong representation this year:
#7 Just Fine - Female Co-trainer - Gai Waterhouse
#12 Okita Soushi - Female Jockey - Jamie Kah
#15 Sea King - Female Jockey - Hollie Doyle
#17 Fancy Man - Female Co-Trainer - Annabel Neasham
#20 Mostly Cloudy - Female Co-Trainer - Natalie Young
#21 Positivity - Female Jockey - Winona Costin
#23 The Map - Female Jockey - Rachel King
Tips
Our selection criteria is that the horse has to be proven over the distance, has had a start & performed in Australia & has a premier jockey on board.
Our Selections
#22 Saint George
Will be making his presence felt over the last 400m.
Will see out the distance, has champion trainer Ciaron Maher preparing him to perfection.
#9 Absurde
Another European raider.
Has won over 4,023m so will run all day.
Get’s Melbourne Cup winning jock Kerrin McEvoy, whom will give him every possible chance.
#1 Vauban
Will see out the trip, proven tough galloper carried 75.5kgs over jumps.
Finished a disappointing 14th in last years Melbourne Cup, but would have taken a lot out of last years campaign.
#5 Kovalica
Distance is the question mark, however if he runs out the distance, will have a turn of foot to put him in the picture at the finish.
#13 Onesmoothoperator
Another international raider.
Was ultra impressive winning the Geelong Cup a few weeks back.
Sat four wide without cover from the 600m, and won dominantly by 2.25 lengths.
#14 Zardozi
Well performed Australian staying mare who has been trained to perfection, using the Bart Cummins model.
Trifecta Play:
1st: 1, 5, 9, 13, 14, 22
2nd: 1, 5, 9, 13, 14, 22
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 13, 14, 15, 22
Total for 100% = $240
First Four Play:
1st: 1, 5, 9, 13, 14, 22
2nd: 1, 5, 9, 13, 14, 22
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 13, 14, 15, 22
4th: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 13, 14, 15, 22
Total for 100% = $1,260
As we discussed, the Melbourne Cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
In saying that, there are a few other tips in the day that we have a bit more confidence about:
Randwick
Race 5 #4 Gringotts $4.00 - Win
Flemington
Ascot
Race 8 #7 Ron’s Finalflutter $7.00 - Win
