Newcastle Advisors - 2023 Melbourne cup tips
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Melbourne Cup
The cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
With form lines coming from all over the world, with many international horses having their first start in Australia and others tackling the 3,200m for the first time.
In saying that, here is our analysis:
#1 Gold Trip
Gold Trip has been an honest customer ever since arriving in Australia.
Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner and is only up 1kg from that win.
He has shown he is back as good as ever with a brilliant Turnbull Stakes win and a brave 3rd in the Caulfield Cup.
Lost no admirers last start, when 5th in the Cox Plate and every chance to go back to back with leading jockey James McDonald taking over.
One of the main chances.
#2 Alenquer
Had done little in three local starts before noted improvement when fifth in the Might And Power behind Alligator Blood.
Followed with midfield effort in the Moonee Valley Cup when never had the clearest of runs.
His form looks below what's needed but will have the crowd cheering as the last ever Melbourne Cup ride for Damien Oliver.
#3 Without A Fight
Failed in the Cup last year but the soft track was against him. Has been in great form since winning twice in Brisbane during the winter then,
after a clean out run in the Turnbull he proved too strong in Caulfield Cup.
Cops a 1kg penalty but with last year's Melbourne Cup winning rider aboard he's a massive chance.
#4 Breakup
Solid Japanese form and was well in the market at $10 when beaten just under six lengths finishing 8th in the Caulfield Cup.
Appeared to have his chance on that occasion but better for the local experience and warrants respect having been close up in two starts in this distance range back home.
#5 Vauban
Versatile galloper adept over the hurdles as well as the flat and deserved favourite.
He was brilliant winning at Royal Ascot by 7½ lengths over 2816m then beat Valiant King under WFA conditions at Group 3 level giving him 4.5kg over 2414m at Naas.
Should race in the first quarter of the field and he’s a tough competitor proven by carrying up to 75.5kg in jumps assignments and no concerns on the distance.
Favourite and one of the main chances.
#6 Soulcombe
Brilliant winner of the Queen’s Cup over 2600m at Flemington this time last year and certainly has the ability to win but has an awful habit of missing the start.
Slow out by six lengths in the Caulfield Cup before a great run 7th beaten 5½ lengths.
His form this time around has been outstanding and gets the ‘magic man’ Joao Moreira aboard. He’s a massive chance provided he can get clear air from the low barrier.
#7 Absurde
Stablemate of favourite Vauban but has serious form recommendations himself coming off an impressive Ebor Handicap win at York to get him an automatic exemption into the field.
Proved too tough under Frankie Dettori and drops in weight here. Superstar hoop Zac Purton takes over and he must be treated with respect jumping from the perfect gate.
The money has come for him in the past 24 hours.
#8 Right You Are
Won six of seven between December and April then spelled and has been thereabouts in most starts this time in training including solid 4¼ length fifth in the Caulfield Cup.
He looks a query at 3200m but is as honest as the day is long and a soft run could see him sneak a place, especially with master distance rider John Allen aboard.
#9 Vow And Declare
Melbourne Cup winner of 2019 back for his fourth crack after missing in 2021 and having the best part of a year off.
Glimpse of his best when getting home strongly for second to Alligator Blood in WFA Might And Power then trapped wide throughout but fought on courageously for second in the Moonee Valley Cup.
Will appreciate the bigger track and drop in weight.
Eight-year-old but looks a big chance.
#10 Cleveland
Peaking at the right time following a second in the St Leger at Randwick with a strong win in the Moonee Valley Cup.
Gets proven Group 1 lightweight hoop Michael Dee to manage and this time last year he won the Victoria Derby and Caulfield Cup.
This horse will go to sleep in the run and shapes as if he’ll handle the 3200m.
Don’t dismiss him despite the wide draw.
#11 Ashrun
Remarkable story just to get to the race.
He had the best part of three years off after midfield finish in the 2020 Melbourne Cup and only resumed in September.
His three runs since have been good and down narrowly in the Geelong Cup with 56.5kg.
Gets in with light weight and set to peak with three time Cup winning hoop steering. Place chance.
#12 Daqiansweet Junior
He goes into this race ready to peak and while he may not have the class of many there’s no doubt about his capacity to handle the distance.
Won the Adelaide Cup over 3200m last year when he powered through the line then third in the Sydney and kept on fighting when 6th in last year’s Melbourne Cup.
Rough first 4 chance.
#13 Okita Soushi
South Sydney colours for the lightly raced raider from Ireland.
Finished midfield in the Caulfield Cup when slowly away. His form back home included wins over 2400m at Ascot and Dundalk and he’s in the right stable with Joseph O’Brien having won the Cup twice.
Still, even allowing for the O’Brien factor he needs to improve dramatically.
#14 Sheraz
Best performance since coming to Australia was a second to Knights Order in last year’s Sydney Cup over this distance but he hasn’t done much since to entice over.
He was reasonable in the Moonee Valley Cup when beaten two lengths but still needs to take his game to another level against these.
#15 Lastotchka
Lightly raced French mare having her first local start and a late nomination for the race
but building a solid record with four wins from 12 starts and last time out she was strong through the line winning 3100m at Longchamp at Group 3 level.
She goes into an astute stable and gets proven Cup winning jockey Craig Williams aboard.
Definitely respecting.
#16 Magical Lagoon
Formerly raced in Europe winning in England and Ireland but hasn’t done enough in five local starts.
Latest though was an improved effort when only beaten a length sixth after leading in the Geelong Cup.
Question whether she can make the necessary improvement to figure but seriously doubt it.
#17 Military Mission
Here's one for those who like a grey, and he’s trained by previous Cup winner Gai Waterhouse (and Adrian Bott).
Won the Newcastle Cup three runs back and last start carried 57kg to win the Herbert Power.
Drops 6kg this time around but place chances would appear best chance for him.
#18 Serpentine
Melbourne Cup winning combination with owners led by Lloyd Williams, trained by Gai Waterhouse (and Adrian Bott) and ridden by 2020 hero Jye McNeil.
Won the Epsom Derby in 2020 and arrived down under mid last year finishing 20th in the Cup.
Form this time around has been solid and third in the Bart Cummings. Down 7kg and hardly the roughest.
#19 Virtuous Circle
He was outstanding in the Australian Derby in the autumn finishing second but four runs this time in have been less than you'd hope for.
Was reasonable in the Bart Cummings two runs back when midfield then well backed in the Geelong Cup but never likely.
Probably needs a wet track to have any chance of sneaking into the money.
#20 More Felons
Came from England with some solid form recommendations including 3¼ length 8th in the Ebor at York behind Absurde and meets that horse 3kg better here.
Raced wide throughout on that occasion and plenty of merit in the run.
First local start and hit the line strongly for 5th in the Geelong Cup, beaten a half length.
A lot to like about this one.
#21 Future History
Won his way into the race with a ‘golden ticket’ via the Bart Cummings when he led throughout.
That 2500m win was his first run out to a staying trip and he fought bravely then backed it up coming from off the speed for a close third in the Moonee Valley Cup.
One new owner bought a 10% share for $205,000 before that.
Will be in the top half of the field for a long way.
#22 Interpretation
Failed to finish in last year‘s Cup but has been ticking over nicely this preparation.
Decent effort when 9th in the Bart Cummings and won his way into this year’s race with a narrow win in Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup.
Not the roughest at big odds but realistically place chance does appear best.
#23 Kalapour
Won his way into the race with an all-the-way win in Saturday’s Archer Stakes.
They went ridiculously slowly and he had the race handed to him.
He's a consistent galloper who was placed in the Metropolitan and St Leger previously and has won out to 2551m in the past.
Place chance would appear best though.
#24 True Marvel
Looked set to cause the upset of the year when he dashed away at $151 in the Sydney Cup only to be run down late.
Then won a 3200m maiden hurdle at Hamilton two runs later and third in the Brisbane Cup.
Has been building up for this distance and he’ll certainly stay but lacks the class necessary to pick up a big cheque.
Lady Luck
Those looking for the female jockeys and trainers in the race, we have a strong representation this year:
#17 Military Mission - Female Co-trainer - Gai Waterhouse
#17 Military Mission - Female Jockey - Rachel King
#18 Serpentine - Female Co-Trainer - Gai Waterhouse
#20 More Felons - Female Jockey - Jamie Kah
#21 Future History - Female Jockey - Hollie Doyle
Tips
Our selection criteria is that the horse has to be proven over the distance, has had a start & performed in Australia & has a premier jockey on board.
Our Selections
#5 Vauban
The clear pick of the international raiders.
Will see out the trip, proven tough galloper carried 75.5kgs over jumps.
Hasn’t raced in Australia which may be of concern. The Mullins camp has flown in big race jockey, Ryan Moore, whom has won group 1 races all over the world.
Likely to run well, however at the price, may be too short for some punters to launch into.
#1 Gold Trip
The clear pick of the locals.
Last year’s winner, has had three beautiful lead up runs and is ready to peak.
Get’s the great J Mac aboard, whom will give him every possible chance.
#10 Vow And Declare
He is back!
Looked like he had a hang over for a couple of years after winning the cup in 2019.
Last year was hampered near the 600m, which was costly.
However, the last few starts he has been building nicely.
Finishing off well, without getting any weight penalties, and comes back down in the weights.
(2019 52kgs, 2020 57kgs, 2022 54kgs, 2023 53 kgs).
Has won the Melbourne Cup previously
#3 Without A Fight
Came over for last year’s Melbourne Cup without a local run under his belt.
This time around, has spent the entire year in Australia to acclimatize, with four strategic runs, winning the Caulfield Cup last start being strong through the line.
Barrier a concern, and might need some luck.
However, last year’s winning hoop, Mark Zahra jumps off Gold Trip to pilot Without A Fight, which is a show of confidence.
#4 More Felons
English raider that had one run in Australia.
I loved the run in the Geelong Cup, was 6-7 deep in a bunch finish. Will bigger track and longer straight.
Has been a long time since he has had 50 kgs on his back, with Campion jock Jamie Kah jumping aboard.
Trifecta Play:
1st: 1, 3, 5, 9, 20
2nd: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 20
3rd: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 20
Total for 100% = $150
First Four Play:
1st: 1, 3, 5, 9, 20
2nd: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 20
3rd: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 20
4th: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 15, 20
Total for 100% = $900
As we discussed, the Melbourne Cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
In saying that, there are a few other tips in the day that we have a bit more confidence about:
Randwick
Race 1#5 Territory Express $2.40 - Win
Race 7 #1 Lion’s Roar $7.50 - Win
Race 10 #6 Dynamic Impact $4.20 - Win
Flemington
Race 3 #2 Aztec State $2.10 - Win = Finished 3rd
Race 8 #3 Kimochi $4.20 - Win
Gold Coast
Race 1 #2 Hit ‘Em Up $2.20 - Win - WINNER
Race 4 #3 Hulkamania $2.70 - Win
Eagle Farm
Race 3 #8 Femme Fatae $7.50 - Each Way
Race 4 #4 Pacific Padrino $5.00 - Win
Race 5 #12 Flying D’amore $4.50 - Win
Sunshine Coast
Race 1 - #8 Smart Recognition $2.50 - Win
