Newcastle Advisors - 2022 Melbourne cup tips
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Melbourne Cup
The cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
With form lines coming from all over the world, with many international horses having their first start in Australia and others tackling the 3,200m for the first time.
In saying that, here is our analysis:
#1 Gold Trip
Gold Trip has been an honest customer ever since arriving in Australia.
The French import kicked off his time down under running back-to-back placings at Rosehill and Caulfield before taking on much tougher company in the Turnbull Stakes where he spotted his rivals a lead before running home into fifth. He took plenty of improvement into his next start to finish a narrow second to Durston in the Caulfield Cup when three wide making a long sustained run, while he’s worth forgiving on last week’s run in the Cox Plate after being held up at a crucial stage. The step up to 3200m is the big query for a horse that holds just one win to his name from fifteen starts, but it’s fair to say the Maher and Eustace stable typically nail these kinds of decisions with their stayers. He’s in his absolute peak, handles the wet, and should be given every chance under Mark Zahra.
One of the main chances.
#2 Duais
Duais has been set for this race for several months and was at one point the favourite in Ladbrokes’ All-In market.
She’s since fallen out of favour with the bookies following a couple of plain runs in the George Main Stakes and the Turnbull leading in, but those were simply warm-ups as she gets out over further. Her most recent performance in the Caulfield Cup was more of what we’re used to seeing, peeling out wide from 16th at the turn to run on and finish only 2.5L off Durston with plenty left in the tank through the line. Perhaps she’s looking for this journey?
I would have loved to have seen regularly jockey Josh Parr booked for the cup, as he knows her inside out and has done all the hard work to get her into the cup.
Great chance
#3 Knights Order
Knights Order is hoping to win his third Cup in as many states, having won the Brisbane Cup last year and more recently the Sydney Cup during the autumn at Randwick.
However, Knights Order was beaten 25.65L in this event last year but that was on a Good 4 track and his lead-up form was poor.
He’s going much better this time around and is set to strike his preferred wet ground.
He will lead and be out in front for much of the race (out of trouble), with the best front running jockey in the country Tim Clark aboard who will be able to dictate proceedings.
We have seen horses lead all the way - including only two years ago with Twilight Payment.
#4 Montefilia
David Payne’s four-time Group 1 winning mare beat last year’s Cup winner Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet Stakes during the autumn and will now step out over 3200m for the first time with three solid runs under her belt. Her longest win was over 2400m in the Metro last year, but she’s bred to see out the longer trip in just her second start at Flemington.
Payne aimed her at this race last year coming off an equally impressive run in the Caulfield Cup but chose to wait an extra 12 months for her to mature.
After flashing home late to finish fourth in the Caulfield Cup for the second year in a row, after finding plenty of trouble early.
#5 Numerian
Numerian marked himself as one of the horses to follow in the Caulfield Cup when he returned from a freshen-up to run second to Cascadian in the Hill Stakes at Randwick.
He took up a forward spot and was unlucky not to run a place in a late sprint to the line two weeks later, a run he can certainly improve on with Tommy Berry booked to ride.
Annabel Neasham’s European import also won the Gosford Cup and a Group 2 at Eagle Farm over the winter, while he’s no stranger to lugging some big weight around.
This form is hard to fault, but I just think this race might be a bit too far for him. They’ve made a gear change - putting a cross-over nose band on. That helps keep their mouths shut while they’re racing and so it helps them to settle better. So that’s an indication he’s suspect at the trip: they’re trying to give him every help they can to see out the 3200m.
#6 Without A Fight
Without A Fight is another Irish raider that gets a big tick on recent form.
He won the Grand Cup with plenty in hand over 2787m at York earlier in the year, and then went one better over the same track and trip taking out the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes by 3.5 lengths. He lugged big weight (61.5kg) to finish runner-up in a Listed race at Newmarket and has been kept fresh for the run.
However, this form is a bit hard to line up. In his last four runs he’s been in very small fields. He won two starts back, but in a three-horse race. In fields that small, it’s often not a true staying test, and it’s more of a mind game when you’re a jockey. There’s no tactics - you just follow each other, get out of the road, and the best horse wins. So, in a 24-horse field all of a sudden - and gate 18 is very tricky - he might now know what’s hit him.
There’s no question he’ll see out two miles with just 55.5 kg’s on his back, and if he can push forward and land on speed, he could be in this all the way.
#7 Camorra
Camorra will make up part of the Irish contingent in this year’s Cup when he debuts for the Lindsay Park team.
The Zoffany six-year-old was a comfortable winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup back in June, in a small field. However, he has failed to produce his best finishing 8th in the field of 11 in the Group 1 St Leger carrying 62kg’s. Watching some of the replays, looks a bit one paced. But there is no question he’ll see out the trip with some relief at the weights, but he needs to improve significantly to be any real threat to some of the better horses in this race.
#8 Deauville Legend
This one’s the pick of the internationals without a doubt.
His formlines are strong and has measured up with El Bodgeon running a place in the Cox Plate last week. He looks like a strong stayer and he’s got 3 x Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy aboard. The horse hasn’t been tested past a win over 2600m, but replays suggest he will stay. These European stayers, they jump out and they switch off and relax, especially with a good tempo, so I don’t think there’s any doubt about the 3200m, the way he’s been finishing his races.
One of the top chances
#9 Stockman
Stockman went around at Rosehill on Saturday in the Gold Cup where he weakened late to finish midfield.
He tends to mix his form this boy, but he’s got claims after holding on for fourth in The Metropolitan before showing real improvement down in class to win the St Leger a few weeks ago. This horse loves it moist, so the conditions on Tuesday will really suit him. He is an out-and-out stayer and not without a chance.
#10 Vow And Declare
The big thing in his favour is pretty obvious: he’s won this race before, so you know he’ll get the trip.
However, he lost his way a little over the past two years, mixing some pretty ordinary form, including finishing 18th last year in the cup.
He looks to have turned the corner and has come back into form, as he was warming up at the end of the Caulfield Cup, and was one of the most eye-catching runs in that race. He’s got Blake Shinn aboard, whom has won the cup before and has come back from Hong Kong in unbelievable form.
The rain will need to stay away for him to be a big threat, but one of the main chances.
#11 Young Wether
Young Werther’s form measures up for a big performance in this year’s Melbourne Cup, despite the fact he hasn’t won since his debut at Geelong two years ago.
As been there or there abouts in recent starts, holding his own in several Group 1’s, most notably finishing a narrow second in last year’s ATC Derby at Randwick, and 1.5L third to Smokin’ Romans in the Turnbull Stakes here at Flemington last month.
On a wet track, this looks a hard task. Looking to others.
#12 Hoo Ya Mai
Hoo Ya Mal is an impressive European import stepping out for the Waterhouse and Bott yard that staked his claim for a spot in the Cup when finishing runner-up in the Epsom Derby over the mile and a half back in June. The international raider went on to run third in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood where current Cup favourite Deauville Legend finished second, followed by a win in the Group 3 March Stakes by a big margin.
That form combined with the booking of superstar Craig Williams, suggests he’s a definite chance at value – but his most recent run when second-last in the St Leger makes him a genuine query stepping up to 3200m.
#13 Serpentine
Serpentine gained late entry into the field following Alegron’s withdrawal on Saturday.
John Allen is booked to ride the Galileo six-year-old, who steps out on a short backup after leading for most of the way and only going down narrowly in the Lexus Archer Stakes on Derby Day. His previous form since arriving in Australia hasn’t been much chop, but he does warrant respect after winning the 2020 Epsom Derby by a whopping five lengths.
#14 Daqiansweet Junior
Kiwi-bred import Daqiansweet Junior is hoping to secure a Cup double after winning the Adelaide Cup back in March.
He ventured to Sydney a month later to run a place in the Sydney Cup, but on paper, his form has been lacking since resuming in the Heatherlie Handicap at Caulfield earlier in August. He’s been kept fresh for his second-last performance in the Bart Cummings last month, a result that reads better than it looks considering he finished only 2.5 lengths off Lunar Flare. A genuinely wet track might test him.
#15 Grand Promenade
Grand Promenade is back for another crack at the Cup after running a strong race for sixth last year.
He came in as the winner of the Bart Cummings last time round, which happens to be the last time he featured in the winner’s circle.
He’ll handle rain-affected ground but needs to improve significantly after being beaten nearly 12 lengths in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last week. In saying that, the tight MV track and short straight, is very different to the big Flemington track, with its long straight.
#16 Arapaho
Arapaho is a very honest type that has made his presence felt since arriving in Australia.
He gapped his rivals by 2.5L to win the Grafton Cup earlier in the year and then stepped out at Randwick to beat home Francesco Guardi – a horse that should be in this year’s Cup – by a narrow margin in a Group 3 at Randwick. More recently, Bjorn Baker’s French import was third to Durston in the Newcastle Cup and second to Stockman in the St Leger.
#17 Emissary
Emissary is another horse that has benefited from the withdrawal of Loft and Durston last week.
He staked his claim for a spot when winning the Geelong Cup a fortnight ago by a length, a form-line that has stacked up nicely in the Melbourne Cup for several decades. It’s had winners go on and win the Melbourne Cup like Media Puzzle (2002), Americain (2010), and Dunaden (2011),
The Michael Moroney-trained six-year-old would probably like the wet weather to stay away, but he does warrant some respect after running home for third in the Hotham Handicap at Flemington over 2500m last year.
#18 Lunar Flare
Lunar Flare is coming off a couple of clashes with impressive international Francesco Guardi that read quite well.
The Fiorente mare got the upper hand and earned a spot in the Cup when she burst clear along the rail to win the Bart Cummings two runs back but was then no match for her stablemate in last week’s Gold Cup finishing a clear runner-up by 3.75 lengths.
That form stacks up nicely though and she does rate a genuine each-way chance racing on the quick backup.
She’s performed well at Flemington placing 4 out of 7 starts, with 51.5kg’s under Caulfield Cup-winning jockey Michael Dee, she is a good lightweight chance.
#19 Smokin’ Romans
Smokin’ Romans was among the eye-catchers in the Caulfield Cup, shifting to the inside at the top of the straight to finish only 2.3 lengths off Durston.
He was a clear winner of the Group 1 Turnbull he run prior, capping off a much-improved month of racing in comparison to the horse whose previous claim to fame was having won the Pakenham Cup. The step up to 3200m from a tricky gate is the big test, but he’ll be given every chance under Jamie Kah, who hopes to become just the second female jockey to win the Cup since Michelle Payne. He is every chance.
#20 Tralee Rose
Tralee Rose will line up in the Cup for a second time hoping to improve on her effort for ninth last year.
She came in as the previous Geelong Cup winner 12 months ago, which was also the last time she tasted victory.
Her recent efforts in the Heatherlie and the Caulfield Cup have been below her best and another Top 10 finish looks unlikely.
#21 Point Nepean
SCRATCHED
#22 High Emocean
High Emocean will carry just 50kg’s into this year’s Melbourne Cup on the back of her Bendigo Cup win last Wednesday.
The daughter of Ocean Park went around as the short-priced favourite and did not disappoint, getting up narrowly at the line to put away the small field of seven.
She’s been in good form over the last few months having also won at Flemington over 2500m two runs back, while she was only beaten 1.5 lengths by Lunar Flare in the Bart Cummings. A win looks unlikely, but she’s hard fit at this stage of her prep and a Top 10 finish isn’t entirely out of the question.
#23 Interpretation
Interpretation strips fitter for three runs back and is one of the more interesting runners at a rough price.
The Galileo entire earned a start following the scratching of Loft and was beaten only a length in the Bart Cummings two runs back – a key form line that might leave him a little over the odds. He lost no admirers in the Geelong Cup two weeks ago when sixth, and he did manage to string together a hat-trick to begin his career overseas. Do not underestimate.
#24 Realm Of Flowers
Realm Of Flowers was set to earn her way into the Cup with a win in the Archer Stakes on Saturday, but luck has since swung her way following the scratchings of Durston and Loft.
The So You Think mare has gained a start and will carry just 50kg’s in her fourth run back, while she appears to have found some good form just in time. She defied the market to run third in a photo in The Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick last time out and will now return with just over a month between starts.
Punters may remember her comfortable 4.75L win in the Andrew Ramsden at Flemington over 2800m back in May, a performance that suggests she’ll see out Tuesday’s distance no problem. The wet track won’t hurt her at all, and a light weight in the wet is always a good thing. Damien Thornton should be able to find a good spot from that barrier, and she is a big chance.
Lady Luck
Those looking for the female jockeys and trainers in the race, we have a strong representation this year:
#5 Numerian - Female trainer - Annabel Neasham
#12 Hoo Ya Mai - Female Co-Trainer - Gai Waterhouse
#16 Arapaho - Female Jockey - Rachel King
#19 Smokin’ Romans - Female Jockey - Jamie Kah
Tips
Our selection criteria is that the horse has to be proven over the distance, has had a start & performed in Australia, & has a premier jockey on board.
Our Selections
#10 Vow And Declare
He is back!
Looked like he had a hang over for a couple of years after winning the cup in 2019.
However, the last few starts he has been flying late. Finishing off well, without getting any weight penalties.
Has won the Melbourne Cup previously, as has his jockey, Blake Shinn, who is in fine form since returning from Hong Kong.
#8 Deauville Legend
The clear pick of the international raiders.
Will likely see out the trip, hasn’t been tested in the wet (however a good track in Europe is a soft track out here!).
Has big race jockey, Kerrin McEvoy booked, whom has won the cup on three occasions.
Likely to run well, however at the price, may be too short for some punters to launch into.
#24 Realm Of Flowers
31 days between runs.
The wet track won’t hurt her at all and a light weight in the wet is always a good thing.
Will find a good spot, from a good barrier.
#4 Montefilia
she went looking for trouble in the Caulfield cup and she found plenty of it. Rattled home which proves a great reference for the cup.
You have to take her on trust a bit this prep cause she’s mixed her runs but on form and potential she has to be in your numbers.
Trifecta Play:
1st: 4, 8, 10, 24
2nd: 3, 4, 8, 10, 18, 24
3rd: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 17, 18, 19, 24
Total for 100% = $160
First Four Play:
1st: 4, 8, 10, 24
2nd: 3, 4, 8, 10, 18, 24
3rd: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 17, 18, 19, 24
4th: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 17, 18, 19, 24
Total for 100% = $1,280
As we discussed, the Melbourne Cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
In saying that, there are a few other tips in the day that we have a bit more confidence about:
Randwick
Race 2 - #2 Limited Reality $12.00 - Each Way
Race 8 #1 Far too Easy $2.90 - Win
Race 10 #2 Norwegian Bliss $2.00 - Win
Flemington
Race 2 - #7 White Marlin $2.20 - Win
Race 3 - #3 Criminal Code $6.00 - Each Way
Race 4 - #12 Quang Tri $2.10 - Win
Race 5 - #14 Pyrois $10.00 - Each Way
Race 10 - #11 Zethus $7.00 - Each Way
