Newcastle Advisors - 2021 Melbourne cup tips
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Melbourne Cup
The cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
With form lines coming from all over the world, with many international horses having their first start in Australia and others tackling the 3,200m for the first time.
In saying that, here is our analysis:
#1 Twilight Payment
Last year's winner who has been in terrific form back in Ireland. He finished second in the Group 1 Irish St Leger over 2816 metres at his most recent start on 12 September after going toe-to-toe in an epic battle with eventual winner, Sonnyboyliston. Prior to that, he was an impressive winner of the St Leger Trial over the same distance.
One of the main chances.
#2 Incentivise
The hottest of hot favourites, Incentivise is on track to break a 20-year Melbourne Cup/Caulfield Cup drought.
After finishing 16 lengths adrift of the winner in a Toowoomba maiden back in March, the Peter Moody-trained five-year-old has since won nine straight, including three Group 1s at his last three starts. Not too dissimilar to his efforts during Winter, he bolted in to win the Caulfield Cup at his last start despite suffering a wide run into the first turn. He's a rising star who looks well placed to become just the 12th horse, and first since Ethereal in 2001, to claim an elusive Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double.
The one to beat!
#3 Spanish Mission
Star UK stayer who was Cup favourite before Incentivise began his superb run of form.
Top-class English stayer who has won six of his 12 starts and counts both the 2020 Doncaster and Yorkshire Cups on his winning record. Earlier this year, he beat home star stayer Stradivarius to land a placing in the Group 1 Gold Cup before going down to him in an epic battle in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at his most recent start.
A top four prospect.
#4 Verry Elleegant
A grand mare of Australian racing, Very Elleegant is one runner you would never query on class with nine Group One wins already to her name.
Kiwi mare who has won 14 of her 33 career starts, nine of them at the highest level. There's no doubt the Chris Waller-trained mare will be able to stay the trip.
She put in a stunning finish in last year's Melbourne Cup but simply got too far back in the running to make an impact on the leading division.
Her run in the recently run Cox Plate, where she sustained a long run from the rear of the field to get up for third, was a great trial for her second tilt at the Great Race.
A top four prospect.
#5 Explosive Jack
Star three-year-old who won the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) in April and G1 South Australian Derby (2,500m) in May.
If you draw big Jack in your office sweep - check what the last place prize is.
#6 The Chosen One
Is it a case of the third time being a charm for this tough Kiwi six-year-old who finished fourth in the 2020 Cup?
The great New Zealand hope. This will be the Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman-trained six-year-old's third Melbourne Cup appearance after finishing 17th in 2019 and fourth last year. Has been hard to follow this campaign but has proven on a couple of occasions that he is capable of a stunning turn of foot in the closing stages of a race.
A top four prospect.
#7 Delphi
Former UK based horse who was transferred to the Freedman stable in June this year.
Forget he went around in the Caulfield Cup where he started second favourite.
He had to do a stack of work early to get over from a wide gate and had nothing left to give when the field hit the home straight.
The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained runner's previous form was excellent, particularly his win in the Herbert Power where he took off for home before the turn and out-toughed them. He should find a nice spot from an inside gate.
One for third or fourth.
#8 Ocean Billy
One of three Kiwis in the Cup. He bolted in to win the Group 1 Auckland Cup at big odds back in March and has since transferred into the care of expat Kiwi trainer Chris Waller. The son of Ocean Park put in a terrific trial for this when finding the line strongly for ninth in the Caulfield Cup, despite a wide trip throughout.
Looking at others
#9 Selino
Former UK horse and a true stayer whose best win in Australia was the Sydney Cup (G1 3,200m) in April.
Doesn't have great lead-up form. He stuck on okay for fourth in the Bart Cummings but was well adrift of the winner in the Caulfield Cup when sent around at massive odds. The former European stayer did win the Sydney Cup earlier this year so he is capable of a big run over the two miles.
#10 Johnny Get Angry
The 2020 Victoria Derby (G1, 2,500m) winner who was guaranteed a start when he won that race.
Has done little since his Derby win last year to warrant his place here.
Will be lucky to beat one home.
#11 Knights Order
Former UK stayer who has been with Waterhouse/Bott since July 2020 and had his best win in the G2 Brisbane Cup (3,200m) in June of this year.
However, he has finished in the back half of the field in all four starts this campaign,
including his last start in the Hotham on Saturday where he weakened out of the contest to finish seventh of nine runners.
Looking to others
#12 Persan
Was rather impressive in last year’s Cup, hugging the rail and finishing strongly to hold on for fifth place when paying 40/1.
He stuck on well in the Caulfield Cup at his last start to keep hold of a placing behind the runaway winner Incentivise.
One of the best placed roughies (long-shots)
#13 Carif
Is one of the outsiders in the field with little in his recent form-line to suggest he can threaten a finish inside the top half of this field.
#14 Master of Wine
Has picked up a nice draw and is capable over the two miles. He has been tried twice over this trip, winning one and placing in the other. His run in the Caulfield Cup was disappointing but he did run on strongly to lob into the placings at his previous start over 2520 metres.
#15 Pondus
Former UK horse having his second trip to Australia (where now based), after just failing to make the Cup field in 2020.
Lloyd Williams is chasing his eigth Melbourne Cup win as an owner.
He has had two starts in Melbourne to prepare, weakening out of the contest in the final 100 metres on each occasion.
#16 Grand Promenade
Serious lightweight chance who booked his Cup ticket with a win in the (G3) Bart Cummings and gets the services of one of Australia’s best hoops.
Will have no problems seeing out the 3200 metre trip and we know he loves this track.
The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained six-year-old has won his last three starts at Flemington, all of which were at a distance of 2500 metres or further. His most recent win here resulted in him earning his spot in this race.
#17 Miami Bound
Solid staying mare who is back for another shot at the Cup after finishing midfield in 2020.
2019 VRC Oaks winner who is having her second tilt at the Great Race after finishing 14th last year. She's a locally-trained mare who has been improving with each run this campaign but Danny O'Brien will need to have found many lengths of improvement for her to threaten.
Looking at others.
#18 Port Guillaume
Formerly based in France where his best win was a G2 over 2,500m in August 2020.
His form has tapered off since arriving in Australia. He has had four starts Down Under with his best effort a sixth in the Naturalism when sent around at odds of 100-1.
Not for me.
#19 She’s Ideel
A winner at G3 level this prep (G3 Kingston Town Stakes 2,000m), She’s Ideel also finished just outside the money when fourth in the Sydney Cup in April this year.
Super honest six-year-old mare trained by expat Kiwi trainer Bjorn Baker. She stuck on well close to the rail in the Caulfield Cup but she was no match for the leading division. Will require plenty of luck to go her way for her to have any chance of filling a place.
#20 Future Score
The 2020 Cranborne Cup winner who finished third in the G3 Hotham and G2 Zipping Classic in that preparation.
Rank outsider who needs a miracle to be winning this.
#21 Tralee Rose
Geelong Cup winner and a stayer on the rise, Tralee Rose is a decent lightweight chance with some form around quality horses.
Top three prospect.
#22 Floating Artist
Former UK galloper who had form around Spanish Mission there before coming to Australia earlier this year and has been working through the grades since.
Great Melbourne Cup trial in the Moonee Valley Cup. He was left a little flat-footed when they turned for home but once he straightened up, he powered home to just miss by the barest of margins. The longer straight will suit, with his previous form being excellent and he will be primed and ready to run a big race over the two miles.
Top four prospect.
#23 Great House
Formerly based in Ireland, Great House arrived in Australia in October 2020 and
has been working through the grades before guaranteeing himself a Cup berth with an impressive win in the G3 Hotham on Derby Day.
Has been impressive and will eat up the two miles. Top 4 prospect.
#24 Sir Lucan
Former Aidan O’Brien-trained runner who is now racing out of the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable. The brother of last year's Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet is a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old who has won two of his eight starts. He finished eighth of 10 runners at his most recent start, the Irish St Leger on 11 September.
Tips
Our selection criteria is that the horse has to be proven over the distance, has had a start & performed in Australia, & has a premier jockey on board.
Our Selections
#2 Incentivise
Has been unstoppable of late.
Watching Brett Prebble’s interview after winning the Caulfield Cup fills you with confidence. Will be very hard to beat and may be a boring cup if he wins at $2.
#1 Twilight Payment
Last year’s winner who destroyed a better quality field. Won’t get things all his own way out in front, but will be in it for a long way.
#21 Tralee Rose
Dominate display in the Geelong Cup and comes in with a light weight.
Will be attacking the line.
#3 Spanish Mission
Can run the distance and has great European form.
Trifecta Play:
1st: 2
2nd: 1,3,4,6,12,16,21,23,24
3rd: 1,3,4,6,7,12,14,16,21,22,23,24
Total for 100% = $99
First Four Play:
1st: 2
2nd: 1,3,6,21
3rd: 1,3,4,6,21,23,24
4th: 1,3,4,6,7,12,14,16,21,22,23,24
Total for 100% = $240
As we discussed, the Melbourne Cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
In saying that, there are a few other tips in the day that we have a bit more confidence about:
Randwick
Race 2 - #5 Famous Pedrille $15.00 - Each Way
Race 2 #7 Mount Smart $4.80 - Win
Race 5 #5 Elusive Jewel $4.00 - Win
Race 6 #1 Amiche $6.00 - Win
Echuca
Race 2 - #11 Otelo $2.80 - Win
Race 5 #1 Deserved $5.00 - Win
Flemington
Race 5 - #11 Frankie Pinot $3.80 - Win
Race 10 - #6 Pandemic $4.50 - Win
