Newcastle Advisors - 2021 Golden slipper tips
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Golden slipper
The slipper is one of the most difficult races to analyse.
With a 2 year old race, there is limited form to assess.
In saying that, here is our analysis:
#1 Shaquero
Has put in a couple of below par efforts in his career but on song is a very good two-year-old winning the Breeder's Plate, Magic Millions and Pago Pago last week.
The barrier hasn't helped his cause but form is certainly good enough.
#2 Profiteer
After impressively winning his first two starts had his colours lowered when run down late in the Todman last start at first 1200m start.
The trip is the query with plenty of early pressure expected but still a major player. .
#3 Artorius
Won the Blue Diamond at his third career outing. Hasn't raced since but has been kept up to the mark with a Randwick trial.
Likely to go back but will be getting home hard.
#4 Ingratiating
Four runs back he chased home Enthaar over 1000m at Caulfield, a fortnight later the blinkers go on and he wins the Talindert carrying the 59kg and then he takes on the Blue Diamond.
Willie Pike rode a good race on him but in the straight he surprised Pike as he hung in at the 150m and lost momentum. Artorius nailed him late.
Ingratiating returns to Sydney and has a break of three weeks before the Pago Pago last week. James Cummings removes the blinkers and he runs fifth to Shaquero running home the second fastest last 600m and 200m splits of the race.
Blinkers go back on, Damian Oliver gets back on and he’s out of a Lonhro mare who won a San Domenico on a soft (7) so a rain affected track should hold no fears
#5 Anamoe
Was placed third in the Blue Diamond before running down Profiteer in the Todman at first Sydney start.
Will go back from the wide gate and likely to be ridden for luck however if the breaks go his way will be right in the finish.
#6 Home Affairs
Won the Silver Slipper before a close third in the Todman. Drawn to get a gun run in transit and is a winning chance.
#7 Kalashnikov
Has hit his straps winning last two including the Black Opal last start. Needs to finds a couple of lengths but still open to improvement and has the luxury of the inside gate.
#8 Stay Inside
Won his first two starts and didn't get much luck in the straight when fourth in the Todman last start.
Ideal gate keeps him right in mix.
#9 Rocket Tiger
Was placed in the Silver Slipper but looked a touch disappointing when third in the Black Opal last start. Suspect he has to find something extra.
#10 O’President
Has won both runs this preparation including the Skyline last start.
Although he had all the favours in running last time out the figures produced from his maiden win at Canterbury were good and I wouldn't be underestimating him.
#11 Captivant
Won the Victory Vein on debut in two first preparation runs and was placed in the Skyline resuming. Will be fitter and at least place prospects again.
#12 Glistening
Won the Reisling last start but doubt that's the right form reference and even though she looks to have some upside place prospects look best.
#13 Four Moves Ahead
Produced good figures to win her maiden on debut at Kensington and resumed with an impressive win in the Sweet Embrace doing the job at both ends.
Drawn to settle in a good spot behind a solid speed rates a winning chance.
#14 Swift Witness
Hit the line strongly to just miss in the Reisling last start but genuine queries regarding the quality of that race and rough place prospects look best.
#15 Mallory
Won the Widden resuming two back before working home strongly when third in the Sweet Embrace last start. Sill scope for improvement and is one of the best roughies.
#16 Queen of Wizardry
Hasn't raced for nine weeks since finishing more than three-lengths from the winner in the Magic Millions. Form doesn't look strong enough..
Tips
Our selection criteria is that the horse has to be proven over the distance, has performed in Sydney ( this way in the going), handles a wet track & has a premier jockey on board.
Raced at this distance or further:
The entire field
Raced & performed in Sydney:
1,2,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15
Can handle a wet track:
1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,13,14,15
Premier Jockey
1,2,4,5,6,8,13
Our Selections
#8 Stay Inside
Getting beaten in the Todman doesn’t worry me, two of the last five colts to win a Golden Slipper were beaten in the same race and you won’t see him being dragged back to last this time.
I can see him stalking Profiteer in running, and the way he pinged on the soft ground in the Pierro gives him as good a chance as any to handle a bottomless surface if that’s what we get.
The Todman’s the form race.
#2 Profiteer
After impressively winning his first two starts had his colours lowered when run down late in the Todman last start at first 1200m start.
The trip is the query with plenty of early pressure expected but still a major player & be in the mix for a long way.
#13 Four Moves Ahead
Produced good figures to win her maiden on debut at Kensington and resumed with an impressive win in the Sweet Embrace doing the job at both ends.
With limited form for the 2 year olds, Four Moves Ahead is one of the only runners that has exposed heavy form.
Drawn to settle in a good spot behind a solid speed rates a winning chance.
#5 Anamoe
Was placed third in the Blue Diamond before running down Profiteer in the Todman at first Sydney start.
Will go back from the wide gate and likely to be ridden for luck however if the breaks go his way will be right in the finish.
As we discussed, the Golden Slipper is one of the most difficult races to analyse especially on a heavy surface.
In saying that, there are a few other tips in the day that we have a bit more confidence about:
Rosehill Race 8 #11 - Each Way
Each preparation he has come back a couple of length better horse and here he arrives at a Group 1 handicap over an ideal trip and just 1kg above the limit.
He is untried on a genuine heavy track but being a son of Snitzel, he’s as good a chance as any to get through it. He’s been prepared to peak here and I can’t go past him.
Impressive winner of the Fireball resuming. He was placed in the Coolmore during the spring and has to rate a winning chance with 52kg taking on the older horses.
Rosehill Race 9 #13 Le Lude - Each Way
Ran two lengths back from the winner last start at Randwick and won once this prep at Randwick three runs back.
Faces a rise in trip. Expect to be right up there.
The favourite She’s Ideal looks hard to beat but if this track is going to be a genuine heavy surface, I don’t want to be taking short odds about anything that tends to get back in the field so I’ve looked elsewhere.
I’ve come up with this John Thompson-trained mare which continues to slip under the radar and she should be peaking on Saturday, fourth run back from a spell.
A proven wet tracker, she will race near the speed and if she runs out the trip, which is a query, she’ll give a sight.
